Moore’s Law as it has been noted as describes the trend that the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has increased exponentially, doubling approximately every two years.

Is there an end to Moore’s law? Moore’s law continued in relevance for the past 40 years, but according to Moore himself the Law won’t be sustainable forever.  Why…because the physics will not allow it to. Basically, the size and characteristics of electrons that have to move through silicon circuits need to be made smaller which is getting harder to do. 

According to research group iSuppli the end of Moore’s law is near. By 2014, the company says Moore's Law will cease to drive chip design. If you thought that iSuppli’s basis is because of physics then you would be wrong. The research group believes that economics and not physics will put an end to Moore’s law.

The big shift comes, says iSuppli, when companies shrink transistor nodes to below 20nm. The problem has nothing to do with the chips themselves, but the equipment that will have to be built in order to make the chips. Since that equipment is really only useful during the lifetime of a single chip generation, it has to be depreciated over the life of that generation. At the 20nm point, equipment "costs will be so high, that the value of their lifetime productivity can never justify it," according to the company.

My bet is that there is a high likelihood that Intel and others see the wall coming too and have already prepared for it. According to Pat Gelsinger, SVP and co-GM of Intel's Digital Enterprise Group (DEG) while speaking at an Intel Developer Forum noted that he believes Moore's Law will continue to hold good through 2029. Who do you believe more?

There is no question that Moore’s law is slowly coming to an end, but a new law will likely take its place…tissue anyone?

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